Google’s Tensor SoC Shipments Forecast to Grow Strongly in 2026
Despite a somewhat underwhelming performance from the Tensor G5, Google’s first system-on-chip (SoC) manufactured using TSMC’s advanced lithography, the company is expected to see the highest year-over-year growth in chipset shipments for 2026. This comes even as the broader smartphone chipset market faces challenges, including a global shortage of DRAM and NAND flash memory components that are driving up costs and limiting supply.
Key Details on Chipset Shipments and Market Impact
According to insights from Counterpoint Research analyst Soumen Mandal, the smartphone industry is bracing for a 7% decline in chipset shipments in 2026 compared to 2025. This downturn is largely attributed to the escalating costs of memory components, which now account for around 20% of the bill of materials (BoM) in flagship devices. Smartphone shipments themselves are forecast to drop by 6.1% over the same period. Notably, Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are expected to suffer the most due to their heavy reliance on third-party chipmakers such as Qualcomm and MediaTek.
MediaTek, in particular, is reported to be significantly affected by the DRAM shortage since over half of its quarterly revenue depends on chipset shipments. Despite this, its large shipment volumes are predicted to keep it as the leading chipset vendor for the year.
In-House Chip Strategies Provide a Competitive Edge
Apple, Samsung, and Google benefit from their integrated supply chains and strong focus on developing in-house silicon, which helps shield them from the worst effects of the memory shortages. Counterpoint’s updated forecasts highlight Google’s expected shipment growth at 18.9%, a substantial increase from the previous 13.3% estimate. Samsung is also poised for growth, with shipments projected to rise by 7.3%, up from 5.1%. Apple, meanwhile, is forecast to see a slight decline of 4.4%, consistent with earlier predictions.
Google’s growth is supported by its AI-driven differentiation and expanding market presence beyond the US and Japan. Samsung’s vertical integration strategy is further bolstered by the upcoming launch of its 2nm Exynos 2600 chipset. On the other hand, vendors like UNISOC are expected to experience the steepest declines due to their exposure to the shrinking low-end 4G market, while Qualcomm and MediaTek face mixed results as premium segment gains offset volume segment weaknesses.
Background and Market Context
The increasing cost of memory components has been a significant factor impacting smartphone manufacturing. Counterpoint Research previously suggested that the BoM for smartphones could rise by as much as 25%, potentially forcing manufacturers to adopt lower RAM configurations, such as 4GB variants, to maintain profit margins. This memory shortage and cost pressure are reshaping the competitive landscape, favouring companies with strong in-house chip development and supply chain control.
Looking Ahead
As 2026 approaches, it will be interesting to observe how Google leverages its Tensor chipset improvements and AI capabilities to expand its footprint in the smartphone market. Samsung’s continued investment in advanced chip manufacturing and vertical integration could also strengthen its position. Meanwhile, the memory shortage remains a critical challenge for many vendors, particularly those dependent on external suppliers. Consumers and industry watchers should keep an eye on how these dynamics influence smartphone availability and pricing in the coming year.